Belichick is simply a defensive genius. If the Pats get an early lead, I think this game will go badly for the Colts. If the Colts can keep their crowd into the game by staying close in the fourth quarter, maybe they can finally break the "curse of the Patriots" in the playoffs. Vinateri is a very valuable piece of the puzzle for the Colts and his acquistion was a very smart move for the Colts. If they had him last year they probably would have beaten the Steelers in the playoffs. The last two games for the Colts have surprised me as well as many observers who watched their defense rolled over by Jacksonville late in the season. Which defensive team shows up today for the Colts? The team that shut down a very good Baltimore Ravens team, or the team that was pushed all over the field by the Jaguars? The Patriots are the best team left in the playoffs by far and I think a Colts win today is probably the equivalent of a Super Bowl title because the AFC again this year looks superior to the NFC. Belichick and Brady is just not the team you want to be matched up against in the playoffs. Maybe today the Colts can get it done, but I wouldn't bet $1 against the Pats, their playoff history is overwhelmingly positive and this QB has demonstrated time and time again he can perform with the game on the line. Statistics mean absolutely nothing in the playoffs. Manning has monster stats and terrific receivers, but no SB rings. Brady does not have the stats Manning has or the Hall of Fame receiver and excellent compliment of receivers they have had intact now for several seasons. But Brady is just not the QB you want to see in the playoffs. My prediction is Pats 31 Colts 15. I'm still not sold on this Colts defense and watching Belichick over the years has made me respect his ability to take away an integral part of any offense with his defensive strategies. Manning has the reputation of losing in college in the big game (look at UT's record against Florida during the Manning years), and now in the pros it's the New England Patriots that have stood in his way in the playoffs and shut the door on this talented QB twice before. It is probably not fair but Manning will be judged as a great statistics QB (like Marino) who couldn't win the big game if today's opportunity ends like the previous two against the Pats and of course last years heart-breaker against the Steelers. Maybe today all that ends for Manning and the Colts, they have heard it so much I'm sure they are sick of hearing how they always manage to lose the big games. Good luck to them and all their loyal fans!!