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有關bullwhip effect

請問bullwhip effect其實算係

1. (一個問題)

還是?

2. (一個問題的起因)

可唔可以用自己既意見解釋下? (不是defination)

謝!

Update:

to: albertkc2002

咁你覺得即係 1 定 2 ?

1 Answer

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  • 1 decade ago
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    Bullwhip effect is a generic term of supply chain management and operation management. It refers to demand forecast variability or error that might be happened and being enlarged when a small change in customer demand can result in a large variation in orders placed upstream when demand information is not exactly and quickly communicated to suppliers in upstream under an ever changing environment.

    Suppliers would have over confidence on the customer demand, and a consideration of production advantage by economies of scale or by ordering efficiency that may cause the problem of backlog. Supplier sometime may be pessimistic to reduce quantity that may cause the problem of shortfall. Bullwhip effect would create the problem of poor service and high cost if failed to countermeasure.

    Causes of Bullwhip effects:

    1. Overreaction to Backlog (poor serving on time)

    2. Neglecting to order for inventory reduction (improper level of safety stock)

    3. No and less coordination and collaboration of suppliers up stream and customers down stream (too independent work with lack of information that may produce unwanted quantity)

    4. Delaying information and material flowing in a supply chain (less market scanning)

    5. Order batching that each order size is too big and ordering is not infrequent (suppliers tend to pursue high efficiency and low per unit cost)

    6. Shortage gaming by customers who tends to place orders more than their needs (customers are afraid of long lead time for replenishment)

    7. Demand forecast inaccuracies as the suppliers might add certain quantities of from down to up stream that could distort the actual quantity needed in the supply chain.

    7. Policy of free returns (like newspapers in HK)

    Countermeasures for bullwhip effects

    1. Order quantity tracking real time can be obtainable by close coordination and communication with suppliers of each level with the use of information management (IM), and electronic data interchange (EDI) technologies

    2. Shortage gaming can be solved by sharing of production capacity and information for best collaboration

    3. A special order contract maybe adopted with the term Every-Day-Low-Price (EDLP) for a countermeasure of unstable price and delivery of orders.

    4. Demand forecast inaccuracies could be eliminated by use of point-of-sales (POS) and harmonized by vendor managed inventory (VMI) for exaggerated demand forecast

    5. Free returns policies must be prohibited and limited

    2006-11-02 15:31:11 補充:

    addition to the part of the countermeasures6. Reducing order size and increasing order replenishing frequency 7. Stocking mostly common components which could be used for different orders

    2006-11-02 20:48:53 補充:

    The arguments can be acceptable by both 1 or/and 2 by my reasoning as follow:If based on your argument- 2,that BWE is the cause of the source problem of Poor Service & High Cost which are considered as the ultimate problems

    2006-11-02 20:49:17 補充:

    If based on your argument-1,that the causes of the source prolem of BWE are listed in the main text from 1-8 as the third paragraph

    2006-11-02 21:12:42 補充:

    correction:5. Order batching that each order size is too big and ordering is infrequent

    Source(s): Supply Chain Management of the quickmba.com
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