m asked in 科學氣象 · 1 decade ago

地震回歸週期475年怎麼算的 如何算發生機率

地震回歸週期475年如何算的

為何不是整數 如500年

可否有詳細回答

或說明

1 Answer

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  • Harvey
    Lv 5
    1 decade ago
    Favorite Answer

    The probability that the event will be exceeded during the n-year interval is:

    P0 = 1 - (1 - P)^n

    Example: For a 10-percent probability of exceedance (P0) over a 50-year (n) interval,

    0.1 = 1 - (1 - P)^50 -> P = 0.0021 -> T = 475 years

    the annual probability (P) equals 0.0021, corresponding to a return period of 475 years

    Source(s): Ajaya K. Gupta, Peter J. Moss ed. Guidelines for Design of Low-Rise Buildings Subjected to Lateral Forces CRC Press, 1993.
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