Anonymous

# Win Share 的WSAB和ExpWS內涵是什麼？

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• Anonymous

您研讀數據很細心,很難得在此遇上同好.ExpWS : Expected Win Shares are the number of Win Shares an average player contributed, given that particular player's time at bat, on the mound or in the field. WSAB : Win Shares Above Bench, or Baseline. WSAB is a refined approach to Win Shares, in which each player's total Win Shares are compared to the Win Shares an average bench player would have received, given that player's time at bat, on the mound or in the field.所以您可能有一點誤解了,ExpWS是一個平均水準球員在給了某個特定表現機會,更精確說,給予特定的工作量之後,這個平均水準球員應該拿到的Wins shares數目,它並不是"比較後的值",而是一個"給你比較的值"WSAB才是一個比較後的值,顧名思義Win Shares Above Bench討論的是:    先算出在板凳選手中有平均水準程度的球員,他拿得到的Win shares,然後再跟某球員的Wins shares做相同程度的比較.這個球員的Win Share值高出一般水準板凳的Wins shares多少的值,即為Win Shares Above Bench.這個就是比較後的值了您想說的應該是WSAA (= Win Shares – Expected Win Shares)我大概了解您的問題點題外話   我比較喜歡Loss Shares = (Expected Win Shares x 2 – WS)    Win Shares(WS)這玩意兒是Bill James發明的,主要是用來算出一個選手對於球隊的貢獻值,而非能力值.所以如果一個球員今年運氣好打60轟,去年卻很鳥,那沒關係,只要今年他對這個球隊有貢獻,這個值就會高.就我的觀點來看,這是一個現實的數據.但這是一個好物,你可以把不同球員都抓進來這個數據比較.當然這有很多adjustments,例如球場因素,守備因素...看您發問的感覺,一看就知不同於一般球迷,所以應該有看過這個網址 ,不過還是附一下http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/2004-win... 就是 : evaluating the contribution of individual players to their teams' overall performance (估算一個球員在他們球隊的整體表現中的貢獻度)   而Wins Above Replacement Player(WARP) 它的定義則是 :The number of wins this player contributed, above what a replacement level hitter, fielder, and pitcher would have done(一個球員貢獻的勝場數,高出了replacement level 的打者,守備者,及候補投手的貢獻勝場數有多少.)  這個東東...有個參數是我們算不出來的,那就是"replacement level"  在BP工作的才會!!  (跟VORP一樣  我們是沒辦法用手算的)

2005-11-19 20:49:08 補充：

這真是我在這邊遇到最有深度的問題了

Source(s): Baseball prospectus 以及 Hardball times
• Anonymous