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Will 2010 be the warmest year on record ?

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  • 10 years ago
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    I think at this point the odds are about 50-50; La Nina may drive it down to second or third.

    I wonder why we never have any average years any more?

    EDIT: Dana, haven't you heard? James Hansen has used his evil powers to take control of Roy Spencer's body (at least that's what I read on the Wyoming Bigfoot Conservatives blog).

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  • 10 years ago

    Yes, at this point it appears that 2010 will be in a statistical tie for hottest year on record with 2005 in NASA GISS and with 1998 in UAH data.

    http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index;_ylt=AnHXr...

    Of course, that's because that diabolical Roy Spencer is fudging the data!

    Note by the way that we already set the 12-month running average hottest temperature record 3 times in 2010. But people are accustomed to thinking about a year being January to December. If the calendar year was May through April, we would have already set the calendar year record. But because the calendar happens to start in January, it will only be a statistical tie for hottest calendar year.

    *edit* it's also absolutely pathetic that bravozulu, who claims to be a scientist (chemist), makes such ridiculously false statements. 1934 was the hottest year in the lower 48 United States until 1998, but it was a relatively cool year globally. Not even close to today's temps - in fact about 0.75°C cooler on a global scale.

    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.lr...

    His claims about scientists fudging data just to make certain individual years hotter than others is just plain stupid, and it's why I made the joke about Roy Spencer (a noted 'skeptic') above.

    Deniers can't even get simple facts right and prefer ignorant conspiracy theories to reality - even the ones who claim to be scientists - and they expect us to take them seriously?

    I challenge anyone who wants to be considered a skeptic - correct bravozulu's false statements and admit that he's wrong.

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  • Trevor
    Lv 7
    10 years ago

    That’s an interesting question, and given the current global climatic conditions, it’s not an easy one to answer. Overall I would say it’s about 50:50.

    At the moment 2010 is the hottest year on record* with an average global temperature of 14.6099°C. With 2010 presently the hottest year on record, 2005 has slipped into second place with a temp of 14.5894°C. This means that the current year is beating the previous record by 0.0205°C – not a particularly large margin.

    There are certain changes that occur in and above the oceans that contribute to changes in the temperatures and wider climate on a global scale. One of this is something we call the El Nino Southern Oscillation or ENSO.

    When it’s in a positive phase ENSO causes a slight warming of the climate, in the negative phase it causes a slight cooling.

    Earlier this year ENSO was in a positive phase and so it helped to make this year the hottest on record (so far) but then it rapidly entered the cooling phase. There is a lag between the strength of ENSO episodes and the effect they have on the climate, and we’re now beginning to witness the effects of ENSO entering a cooling phase earlier this year. As a consequence, it’s probable that the final figures for November and December won’t be quite a warm as other months this year and so the final figure for 2010 could drop slightly from it’s current value.

    For the last two years I’ve been predicting that the temperature for 2010 (based on NASA’s records) will be 14.712°C, at the moment NASA’s figures show the temperature to be 0.009°C higher than I had predicted. I suspect now, that by the end of the year, my estimation may have been slightly on the high side and the final value may be closer to 14.680°C. If this is the case then it will mean that 2010 will be the second hottest year on record.

    * All figures for 2010 are values up to and including 23rd November. Unless stated, all figures are averages of all global temperature records.

    That’s an interesting question, and given the current global climatic conditions, it’s not an easy one to answer. Overall I would say it’s about 50:50.

    At the moment 2010 is the hottest year on record* with an average global temperature of 14.6099°C. With 2010 presently the hottest year on record, 2005 has slipped into second place with a temp of 14.5894°C. This means that the current year is beating the previous record by 0.0205°C – not a particularly large margin.

    There are certain changes that occur in and above the oceans that contribute to changes in the temperatures and wider climate on a global scale. One of this is something we call the El Nino Southern Oscillation or ENSO.

    When it’s in a positive phase ENSO causes a slight warming of the climate, in the negative phase it causes a slight cooling.

    Earlier this year ENSO was in a positive phase and so it helped to make this year the hottest on record (so far) but then it rapidly entered the cooling phase. There is a lag between the strength of ENSO episodes and the effect they have on the climate, and we’re now beginning to witness the effects of ENSO entering a cooling phase earlier this year. As a consequence, it’s probable that the final figures for November and December won’t be quite a warm as other months this year and so the final figure for 2010 could drop slightly from it’s current value.

    For the last two years I’ve been predicting that the temperature for 2010 (based on NASA’s records) will be 14.712°C, at the moment NASA’s figures show the temperature to be 0.009°C higher than I had predicted. I suspect now, that by the end of the year, my estimation may have been slightly on the high side and the final value may be closer to 14.680°C. If this is the case then it will mean that 2010 will be the second hottest year on record.

    * All figures for 2010 are values up to and including 23rd November. Unless stated, all figures are averages of all global temperature records.

    - - - - - - - -

    EDIT:

    Interesting to note that Pegminer has assigned the same probability to 2010 being the hottest year as I have and that he cites La Nina (the cooling phase of ENSO) as being the factor that could cause it to lose it’s status as the hottest year. Maybe it’s because we’re both climate scientists and comprehend these things.

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  • 10 years ago

    Only in Hansen's fantasies and manipulated data. He had to lower one of the years in the 1930's to get 1998 as the highest. I heard he lowered 1998 to try to make room for 2010 but the el nino probably spoiled his plans badly by not lasting long enough. It requires manipulation of the data. It isn't likely to be the warmest even with his bogus manipulations.

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  • 10 years ago

    Umm, "14.6099" ? You have to be some special kind of ignorant to think the temp. of the earth can be measured to o.ooo1 degree of accuracy. Amazing. The claims of an increase in temps. are based not on raw data, but data that has been "corrected." And data of surface temps from more than 50 years ago are from instruments that were typically not accurate to more than 0.1 degree at best, corrected for local variables, revised several times: generally to support and exaggerate the supposed dramatic rise in global temps over time. Like Mark Twain used to say (he attributed the line to 19th-century British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli): "There are three types of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." Phill Jones shows this with this quote: "I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temperatures to each series for the last 20 years (i.e. from 1981 onwards) and from 1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline." Well, yes, don't want the data to suggest global warming disappeared. Why that would mean the increase in funding might also disappear. Certainly can't have that. So fudge the data. Just a bit. And pretend that the temp of the earth can not only be measured, but measured to within 0.0001 degree! And accurately compared to past temps to the same absurd certainty. Even with temp proxies (have you seen the studies of tree rings over the last 40 years that DON"T correlate with measured temps? Oh yea, does not fit your paradigm, so ignore the data) and thermometers accurate to at best 0.1 degree!

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  • Anonymous
    10 years ago

    no,it is very cold now.

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  • Anonymous
    10 years ago

    No.

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