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Lv 4
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Do you think Gold will reach $1000 per ounce?

by the end of the year, do you think the price of gold will soar to $1,000 per ounce? It's currently around $585.

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  • NC
    Lv 7
    1 decade ago
    Favorite Answer

    OK, let's put some numbers on the problem. We have an asset with monthly volatility of about 10% and a near-zero expected return in the long run. How likely is it that its price will increase by 70% in five months? If I am doing my math correctly, this would be a 3.17 standard deviation event, meaning that the likelihood of that happening is about 0.08%.

    If you built an ARMA model, you could probably get a higher likelihood estimate though... I'd run one out of curiosity, but I don't have eViews handy...

  • 1 decade ago

    Nope. Gold will not hit $1000 this year. All the speculative money has been pulled out from the markets due to the hedge funds and central banks tightening their money supply. With speculative money, gold hit $700. There needs to be a healthy correction before gold can resume its upward trend.

    We need to factor the strength of the US dollar and I believe that in the short-term the US dollar will strengthen.

    Don't get me wrong, we will see gold at $1000, but not this year.

  • Anonymous
    1 decade ago

    No. They went through this same craze in the 80's. Never made it to $1,000 then, and it won't now.

    As for your comment about Fort Knox and world hunger, you have so much to learn. Do you really believe that giving people money or food is the answer to world hunger? Sharpen that pencil of yours. Regime change is job #1. There is much to learn from history.

  • 1 decade ago

    no way Jose' Interest rate is going up ......gold 's comming down.

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  • 1 decade ago

    i don't think it will get that for quite a while

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