What’s the best strategy to win an NCAA tournament pool?

Question

I have had success coaching a couple of winning college basketball teams and taking them pretty far into the NCAA tournament, having come within 3 points of taking St. John’s to the Final Four. I’d like to make sure I win it all this year in my tournament pool. What suggestions do you have?

Answer 1

Best Answer - Chosen by Asker

1st Round:

* Be very selective picking any team below a #12 seed. #16 seeds are 0 for 88. #15 seeds are 4 for 88. #13 and #14 seeds are less than 19% combined.
* Don’t be shy about picking upsets when #12 through #9 seeds are involved Look especially hard at picking #12 seeds; they have won 11 of 24 matchups vs. #5 seeds the last six years. #9 seeds have a winning record vs. #8 seeds.

2nd Round:

* Advance #1 seeds almost automatically – they win their first two games 86% of the time.
* Keep advancing the #12 and #10 seeds you picked to win in Round One. They win almost half the time in Round Two (14 of 29 for #12 seeds; 17 of 35 for #10 seeds).
* Rarely pick a #13 seed or lower to win in Round Two. Only 9% of teams advancing past Round Two are seeded that low.

Sweet 16:

* Advance exactly three #1 seeds into the Elite 8. No reason to buck the math: 70% of #1 seeds advance into the 4th round (that’s a higher percentage than #5 seeds who win a single game)!
* Advance no team lower than a #12 seed into the Elite 8. NOT ONE has ever advanced!

Elite Eight:

* Advance ONE or TWO #1 seeds to the Final Four. Amazingly, exactly one or two #1 seeds have made the Final Four 18 of the last 22 years.
* Advance no team lower than a #8 seed to the Final Four. Only 2 of 88 Final Four teams have been seeded lower than #8.

Final Four:

* Advance NO team below a 6th seed to the Championship game. Not a single one has made it in the last 21 years.

Championship Game:

* Pick a #4 seed or higher to win it all. For 18 straight years the champion has been a 4 seed or higher!

Asker's Rating:

Asker's Comment:

This answer was selected with the help of Yahoo! Answers editors

Answer 2

Don't try to take every upset, because not all the 4,5,6,7 seeds will lose. Try to find a team that matches up well with the team thats favored and pick them.

Answer 3

The key to winning a tournament pool is to determine what top seeds are true contenders versus the ones who are most susceptible to early round defeats, what mid-level seeds are capable of going on a run and what low seed or two can pull of the huge upset. Always select at least one #12 seed to advance beyond the first round or two, and look for a mid-major team to get hot. Ultimately, though, when picking the one team that will go all the way, find one that has great coaching, a significant number of upperclassmen, a hot point guard, and a couple power forwards or a center who’s solid on defense and can dominate in the paint. That and just a little bit of luck…

Answer 4

Pick upsets but not to manyu. Upsets will happen not only in the first round either. A double digit seed will make the sweet sixtenn if u get that double digit seed you are in good shape. Also dont pick all 1 or 2 seeds in the final four.

Answer 5

The key is to take dogs not the underdogs my friend...

Source(s):

Past Expierience

Answer 6

Well the answer is - "it depends". If your pool gives has standard scoring with increasing point value each round and only allows one entry per team and you have between 5 and 20 entries - then your best bet is to pick a two or three seed to win it all. There will be tons of people taking Florida and UNC so try a slightly different team with still a great chance. If your 3 seed wins you can forget about the other 62 picks you made in the pool, it won't matter with and incrementing scoring system.

If you can make multiple entries, even if you must pay each time, enter as many as you can. Pick different final four makeups each time and one scenario should come pretty close.

If your pool has hundreds of entries then you should go for somewhat unlikely final team or final game. A three vs. three in the final. Or a #5 winning it all. If it happens, you would almost surely win the pool.

If you are talking about the Yahoo! Pool, well just pray. Because every imaginable final four makeup has been picked. Therer are people who pick 16 seeds to make the final four.

Answer 7

I run a big tournament pool- well, realtively big, so here are my suggestions.

1. If a team doesn't look like it should be a certain seed, don't treat them like one. Memphis last year was a classic example of a team that did not deserve a one seed, and ultimately did not make the final four. This works well when picking those tricky 6-11, 5-12 games in round one.

2. A lot of the seven-ten, eight-nine games feature one team going up, and one team going down. Pick the going up team in each of those games.

3. Watch the team that scores an upset winning a conference tournament. It is very unlikely that a team like that maintains momentum. N C State in 1983 was the exception to that rule.

4. Look for great players with halfway decent supporting casts. One usually cannot run the table without the other.

Answer 8

Sometimes in winning an NCAA tournament pool it is better to be lucky than good. But it does take more than luck. I enter pools all the time and sometimes I do well because I predict the right upsets and sometimes I lose because I take a gamble and fall short..here are some suggestions:

1. One 5 seed always loses to a 12...it occurs because a 12seed is always one of the better midmajors or one of the last teams in the bracket that has alot of talent but underachieved for some reason..mainly from bigger conferences. 5 seeds are usually mid of the pack teams that got hot at the right time, not good enough to be one of the top16 seeds and not bad enough to be lower.
2. A number one seed never loses in the first round..there have been close calls but a number one seed usually has superior talent. only once has a 16 seed won in either the mens and the womens, and it happened in the womens bracket when the one seed didnt have their best player.
3. All 4 number one seeds WILL NOT make the Final Four. History shows it hasnt happened and there is so much parody in college hoops that one is bound to get upset.
4. Teams that shoot 3pointers well are dangerous. The three point shot has changed the game and if a team starts shooting them well, can cause upsets. This year, teams like Davidson and Florida and Texas have shooters that can carry them far in the tournament.
5. One man gangs- Teams that feature superstar players such Texas and Kevin Durant have been upset prone on one hand but also have the ability to ride the hot hand all the way to the championship (see Carmelo Anthony and Danny Manning)..even Wally Sczerbiak carried Miami Oh to the Sweet 16
6. Guard play- to make it to the final four, or even advance in the tournament, you must have exceptional guard play. Teams like Florida and UCLA last year had that and that is why they made it to the title game. It is hard to trust a freshman point guard (Mike Conley of Ohio St) to help carry a team to the Final Four, even if Greg Oden is your center
7. Take risks. I always say no guts, no glory. You have to pick the upsets, and you have to think outside the box. Conventional wisdom in picking games is usually how you do not win pools. In order to distinguish yourself from the rest of the members of your pool, you have to choose teams to win that nobody has winning, as long as that team seem like they can win or if a team looks prime for an upset.

Answer 9

Be a gentleman.

Answer 10

UNC

Answer 11

Why don't you go coach another team and leave their varsity basketball program in shambles just like you did here!

-Current St. John's Student

Answer 12

Be wary of number 12 and 13 seeds. They seem to upset the apple cart a lot.

However in the long run the 1, 2, and 3 seeds seem to make it to the final four.

Answer 13

Put your bracket on a dart board.....

Answer 14

Don't pick a #1 to win it all, rather pick a 2,3 or 4 seed. I think Texas A&M will win it all.

Answer 15

dont think to hard about it...anthing can happen on any given night so dont spend too much time studyin every game, just go with your gut feeling and move on.

Answer 16

Georgia Tech as your cinderella, Fla, Wisc, Kansas, UCLA, Texas, Georgetown, OSU and Memphis in the final 8, Fla-Tex in the final. Texas crushes Fla's hopes of a dupe.

Answer 17

Pick some reasonable upsets like Creighton over Nevada.

Source(s):

ME

Answer 18

Always pick mid-major conference winners to win at least one game. Definitely pick all major conference winners (Big Ten, SEC, Pac-10, ACC, Big East, Big 12) into the sweet 16.
If a team won their conference and got a 1 or 2 sceede they are in the final 4.
I guess this means pick Creighton to beat Nevada, and pick OSU and Georgetown into the Final Four.

Answer 19

I generally try to pick the final four teams and then work backwards. Once I am satisfied with the results, I then concentrate on how the final four will survive. No magic and it doesn't always work out well. Last year I didn't do so well. This year, I hope will be better. I picked Florida, Kansas, Memphis and Georgetown with GT beating Kansas for the title.

Answer 20

None whatsoever. You should know as well as anyone that March makes it special because predictions are inept. I saw George Mason play a regular season game last year nad never imgained they would even have made the NIT. Then they pull off an at-large bid and well we know the rest. 1985, Georgetown lost? Texas Western, the list is radical and ridiculous. They are still college kids and on any given day each and everyone are vulnerable. Percentage wise yes a #12 seed will win and #1's will move past the first round but one will lose in the 2nd. Past that, good luck coach. Congratulations on all your success at St. Johns.

Answer 21

Pick the teams based on their seeding. It works every time!

Hot tip: I heard St. Johns was going to the Elite Eight.

Answer 22

Whenever I fill out my sheets, I never pick a team that has the letter "q" in it. Hope this helps.

Answer 23

Don't get suckered into Pac-10 teams. Even with the top 5 being in the top 25 rankings all year every year, the Tournament kicks them out early (First 2 rounds) almost every year. Not sure UCLA will even make it past Gonzaga.

Answer 24

look at match ups and records vs. top 25 teams that will let you know who can play night in and night out. finals ucla because they are home to the final four and g-town because they can sneak up on unc.

Answer 25

Always pick at least one #12 to beat a #5 seed.....after that find teams from "power" conferences that play defense and can run a half court offense with efficiency. All that being said, pick Georgetown to win the whole thing!

Answer 26

Watch for Illinois playing inspired ball as of late. Nothing more dangerous than a team who has nothing to lose but everything to prove...

Answer 27

Since it is rare that we see a Final Four with all the Number 1 seeds represented, it is usually safe to assume in my book that at least 1 or more #1 seeds will falter prior to the finals. In this years case, I see Kansas and Florida as the more dominant and legitimate contenders to reach the Finals. So we're probably looking at a Texas upset of North Carolina as a strong probablility.

Answer 28

Lots of Luck! The picks that will help you win are the 5-10 picks. Taking a 10th rated team to beat a 5th rated team are the ones that get you to the finals

Answer 29

Easy, take the Defending Champion Florida Gators. We've won everything else this year, why not take it down again.

Source(s):

Albert E. Alligator

Answer 30

In order to effectively win an NCAA tournament pool, you have to realize that the four #1 seeds have never met in the final four, a number 12 always beats a number 5 every year, no team that lost in the first round of their own conference tournament has went on to win the NCAA Tournament, and rememer that cindrella is invited to the dance every year.

Answer 31

Dont pick all number 1 seeds to be in the final 4, and at the same time, dont expect mid majors to make the final four again. I dont think there will be another "geroge masonesque" team this year. I would say pick Kansas to win it all because they play great team basketball and dont rely on one player to help them win. KU is one of the best defensive teams in the country and they get scoring from everyone (Chalmers, Rush, Wright, Collins).